Is Starbucks... back?

Hello!

This week we’re talking:

  • Starbucks' huge quarter

  • Taco Bell's even huger quarter

  • And some thoughts on the Grimace Burger

Read on…

3 Numbers

8%

Same-store sales growth for Taco Bell, which has become a Diablo sauce-fueled rocket for parent company Yum Brands. The chain is looking to compound its growth this year with a broader rollout of AI technology, which will let Taco Bell quickly change the layout, visuals, and messaging shown to its drive-thru customers.

0.5%

Same-store sales growth for Chipotle in the first quarter — a strong result after a pretty tough 2025 for the brand. Despite the sales growth, margins did compress, primarily due to wage inflation and rising beef prices, with net income dropping from $386M in Q1 of 2025 to $302M in the first quarter of 2026.

$5

Price of every sandwich on Subway’s new Fresh Value Menu — the first formal value menu in the chain’s history (the ubiquitous $5 Footlongs of the late 2000s were technically a limited time offer). The new menu consists of four protein wraps and 11 types of 6-inch sandwiches, including old standbys like the Turkey Ham and Cold Cut Combo.

The Big Story

In a busy restaurant earnings season, Starbucks has come out as a clear winner, via Restaurant Dive:

Starbucks’ ongoing turnaround is picking up steam, despite consumer uncertainty related to rising costs and macroeconomic problems, executives said on the chain’s fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call on Tuesday.

Same-store sales in the brand’s North America segment rose 7.1% year over year in Q2, driven by a 4.3% increase in traffic and a 2.7% bump in average ticket, according to an earnings release.

The traffic increase was greater than the chain’s 3% gain in transaction in fiscal Q1, and comes despite significant consumer headwinds and major weather events, which caused at least one other QSR to miss its projected sales growth in the quarter.

CEO Brian Niccol said the quarter marked the “turn in our turnaround,” and attributed the brand’s performance to its Green Apron Service standards and improvements in the afternoon and morning dayparts.

One stat that should have the folks in Seattle swinging the pendulum from It’s So Over to We’re So Back: 7.1% is the company’s best same-store sales number in two and a half years, and for the first time in a long time, it's because more people are showing up, not because the drinks cost more:

“We haven’t seen this transaction strength in three years,” Niccol said. “Our U.S. company-operated business grew transactions across all dayparts, with mornings now roughly back to fiscal 2022.”

Niccol said positive comparable sales trends continued through April. The brand has seen spending gains across income cohorts.

Since being named CEO in August 2024, Niccol has made more modifications than a customer filming a TikTok. To wit:

  • Green Apron Service: This is reportedly the largest investment in operating standards in Starbucks’ history — a new store operating model built around a four-minute order-to-handoff target, powered by a new ‘smart queue’ algorithm and $500 million in additional labor hours.

  • Coffeehouse experience reset: Starbucks brought back condiment bars, ceramic mugs, and Sharpie-written cups. Restrooms are now designated for customers only. These were small tweaks, but going into a Starbucks now feels a bit less transactional and chaotic, and more like visiting an actual coffeehouse.

  • Menu and pricing simplification: The company eliminated the non-dairy milk upcharge, cut low-performing items, and added guardrails on customization so that complex TikTok-style drinks cost more while simple swaps cost less. On the marketing side, the Starbucks Super Bowl promotion was by all accounts a smashing success.

  • Staffing model restructure: Starbucks overhauled its staffing processes, adding a full-time assistant manager at every store, expanded its rosters, and extended hours so nearly all stores are now open at or before 5 a.m. More money has also been set aside for frontline bonuses.

There are more reasons to be bullish (other than the obvious, which is that Starbucks ultimately sells caffeine, which I and roughly 284 million other Americans need every day to function normally): Scheduled ordering is finally coming to the app, and Starbucks has really just started to remodel its stores. Only 300 of the company's 11,000 company-operated North American stores have been renovated so far, with plans to hit 1,000 by year-end. There are few silver bullets in the restaurant industry, but for a brand with momentum, a store remodel is pretty close — it lifts everything from traffic to recruiting.

In the Headlines

Name That Chain!

You’ve got three guesses to name this week’s mystery chain:

  • Founded in 1949 after a brother and sister bought an old hot dog stand and moved it to a cornfield near a public park in Lincoln, Nebraska

  • The flagship menu item traces back to 18th-century Volga German immigrants — it's a bread pocket stuffed with seasoned beef, cabbage, and onions

  • Still family-owned and now with around 90 locations in just one state, during the coldest months of the year, the chain runs a promotion where the price of its signature sandwich is set to match the lowest temperature recorded at any of its locations that morning

Find the answer at the bottom of the email…

Power Moves

Here are some notable C-suite moves from the past week:

What’s New at FS Supply

One thing the Starbucks turnaround reinforces: the cup matters. It's the one piece of packaging every single customer touches, carries out the door, and — increasingly — posts on social media.

We work with chains to design and manufacture branded cup programs in both crystal-clear PET and double-wall hot cups. If your cups are still generic, you're missing an easy chance to carry your branding outside your building.

Thanks for reading! I’ll see you next week.

NAME THAT CHAIN ANSWER: Runza

Reply

or to participate.