Chili’s Is Having a Moment (Again)

Author

Andy Moore
January 30, 2026

Hello!

This week we’re talking:

  • Starbucks: So back?

  • Jersey Mike’s may be going public

  • And the Chili’s sales heater continues unabated

Read on…

3 Numbers

$12 billion

Potential valuation of Jersey Mike’s, which Bloomberg reports is exploring an IPO as early as Q3 of this year. If the sandwich chain hits that target, it’d mean quite the return for Blackstone — it was just last year that the private equity giant acquired a majority stake in the chain at a reported $8 billion valuation.

$27.5 million

Amount paid by PAR Technology for Bridg, a data platform that, among other things, gives restaurants insight into their non-loyalty customers. With the acquisition, Bridg joins a sizable suite of products purchased by PAR in recent years, including the loyalty program Punchh, the restaurant analytics program Delaget, and the transaction management platform TASK Group.

$10 million

Amount raised by startup Curate which offers “what it calls ‘instant apps,’ or mobile ordering and loyalty apps that customers do not have to download to their phones.” The company aims to get participating restaurants more direct delivery orders by creating for them relatively frictionless, DoorDash-like ordering experiences.

2 Big Stories

  1. Fueled by the popular Bearista cup promo and increased investments in its workforce, Starbucks reported its first sales and traffic jump in two years. Via QSR Magazine:

North America and domestic comps rose 4 percent in Q1, fueled by a 3 percent rise in transactions and a 1 percent lift in average ticket. Niccol added that about half a point of positive comps was due to sales transfer from closed stores (a net of 177 shops shuttered in North America year-over-year).

International markets fared well too, with same-stores rising 5 percent, driven by a 3 percent increase in transactions and a 2 percent uptick in average ticket.

Additionally, Q1 marked the first time Starbucks has grown transactions from both rewards and non-rewards customers since Q2 2022, or nearly four years ago. In addition to the positive traffic, the brand reached a record 35.5 million 90-day active loyalty members in the first quarter. Transactions from non-reward guests increased even faster.

From reviewing the earnings call, Starbucks is touching just about every area of the business — from speed of throughput (the goal is four minutes or less), to labor scheduling (more baristas during peak), to store remodels aimed at making locations feel cozier and less transactional. Its marketing is creating viral moments like the Bearista campaign, and it’s also pumping out big-picture brand awareness ad campaigns that (from what I’ve seen) have been airing heavily during the NFL playoffs.

And this being 2026, AI is also part of their operations playbook: Starbucks says its baristas are now using an AI-powered search tool called Green Dot Assist to troubleshoot ops issues and help with increasingly complicated beverage builds (which would be one of the smarter and more straightforward AI/restaurant use cases I’ve seen so far).

  1. Chili’s remains en fuego, reporting 8.6% same-store sales growth in Q2. Via Nation’s Restaurant News:

The chain’s 8.6% same-store sales growth in the second quarter outpaced the casual-dining segment by 680 basis points, chief executive Kevin Hochman said during Wednesday morning’s earnings call. It also rolled over 31-plus-percent last year for a cumulative comp of 43%, a three-year cumulative comp of 50%, and a four-year comp of 62%.

“The Chili's turnaround is real, it is sustaining, and we have no intentions of taking our foot off the gas, which means we will continue to be focused on improving our food, service, and atmosphere, as well as continue making Chili's more fun, easier, and more rewarding for our team members,” Hochman said.

Similar to Starbucks, Chili’s is very much getting in the weeds on continuing to improve its offerings: Its earning call included details on a new, thick-cut bacon (which helped increase bacon cheeseburger sales by 40%), relaunched nachos with house-made ranch dressing (nacho sales rose 170%), and, coming soon, a new “differentiated” chicken sandwich line.

With the new menu innovations, the brand plans to stick with messaging that continues to highlight its relative value proposition:

Hochman said Chili’s is also riding a tailwind on value and has positioned itself as a leader not just in casual dining but for the entire industry. This performance is the result of “hundreds of millions of dollars” of investments in improving the guest experience.

“Chili's was the number one traffic brand in casual dining for the entire 2025 year. What’s even more encouraging is our per-person check average is still more than $3 less than our direct casual-dining competitors, and more than $4 less than casual dining as a whole,” he said.

Other Headlines

  • Fat Brands filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this week as it seeks to restructure its $1.4 billion in debt, primarily stemming from whole business securitizations that were used to acquire chains in 2020 and 2021. The company (which owns Fatburger, Round Table Pizza, and other concepts) says its brands will operate as usual during the process.

  • Come for a hammer, stay for a hamburger: Wahlburgers says it is building units at Home Depot and other non-traditional locations this year.

  • After years of development, pan pizza has returned to the Papa Johns menu. The Papa crew believe they’ve nailed the recipe this time, and to that end, I truly love this sentence via Pizza Marketplace: “Mark Gabrovic, vice president of culinary at Papa Johns, said extensive testing with consumers and team members proved that the pizza wasn't just good — it was a force to be reckoned with.”

  • And elsewhere in new menu news, Chipotle is bringing back Chicken al Pastor.

Name That Chain!

You’ve got three guesses to name this week’s mystery chain:

  • This pizza chain was founded in the late 1970s in Northern California and now has over 300 locations

  • Among other things, it’s known for a crispy, curly pepperoni and massive 20-inch pizzas

  • Pie options include the “Everest” and “Pike’s Peak”

Find the answer at the bottom of the email…

#Content Recs

Power Moves

Here are some notable C-suite moves from the past week:

Thanks for reading! I’ll see you next week.

NAME THAT CHAIN ANSWER: Mountain Mike’s Pizza

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